Honest Market Outlook

The Market had one of the biggest single day gains ever. This is an unhealthy sign that happens when a bear market can drop much further. Not only that its been 2 months into this bear market where the shortest non covid bear market was 3 months and the average is 8-11 months. China is not going to give in easily to a deal and this conflict will likely flip the market over. Inflation is up and tariffs raise inflation. The previous economic weakness I've discussed before remains as well. Overall I see a small chance of this being the bottom and us reaching ATH from here. Expect further decline. The vast majority of statistics and historical data is in support of further decline, don't fight the data. SPY bounced off its 5 year trend floor, currently at 480, twice this week showing the power of long term trend lines. There is no other long term trend line(sup and res isn't trend line) until we hit THE FLOOR(the max timeline trend floor of the sp500) which is at 350 a few months from now. That means if we break past the 5 year trend, we have no solid confluence till there which is quite ludicrous but in my opinion.... quite possible or even likely based on time spread and the overvalued market. I recommend preparing for the worst until we have data and reason to believe things will recover. However there is a chance since we hit the 5 year trend that we could recover however unlikely. I rate the chance of new lows of 450 at least at 80% and ATH from here at 20%. Be safe, be smart, DCA slowly if investing and look at the data.