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Portfolio Update September 25, 2023

A rather rough week for the markets but not for the portfolio! The last two weeks have been great for the portfolio in relation to our benchmark. This past week the portfolio appreciated 0.36% while the MSCI world index was down 2.63%. The short book really did well, the top performers for the week was ARKK puts, PI short and long U.UN. The top detractors were MDGL, BTU and DVN.

Let’s go over changes to the portfolio this past week because we made a few. First, we closed the CROX long position for a 12.5% loss which was equal to about 0.25% of NAV. While technically it didn’t hit my stop loss I haven’t liked the price action at all since we entered the position and now I’m really starting to become bearish. Furthermore, it looks like XLC is going to break down. I’m currently working on a macro report where I will a little about my outlook in various asset classes and I’ll address my bearishness in that article but a bad looking chart combined with a time where I’d like to limit risk means to me that this position had to go. I’ll still watch it and it will remain on the WL.

I also closed my PI short for a 23% profit total which contributed 0.75% bps to NAV. PI dropped more than 15% in a matter of days and usually when that happens I think it’s a good idea to take some profit. Now I could have just closed half the position or some other portion of the position but generally with short positions, it’s not how I play it. I like getting in and out in whole and play the bounces. When shorting something I never really expect to profit any more than 40% max, life isn’t a movie and this isn’t the big short where we are going to strike it rich. We short to be able to get more long and when a short has worked then I want to take it off and move it to something else. Could PI keep going down? Easily, but with the magnitude of the move in that amount of time it’s far likelier we see a bounce pretty soon, and I’d rather find something else to short than hold through that.

That’s it for updates on current positions. I’m gonna do something different this week and go through some charts on some assets I’m watching this week and explain if I’m watching to go long or short! Every sunday I spend some hours going over charts and figuring out a gameplan for this week in conjunction with what events are happening this week. Last week I really had my eyes on yen futures with the FOMC followed by BOJ but unfortunately Ueda just dropped the ball and I’m no longer interested in it. Let’s start with what’s on the go this week.

I’m watching ARKK for a bullish bounce towards 40-41 which fills the gap and is where the 8ema is sitting. I’m probably looking to add to my puts here.

Bearish KRE, looking for it to break support here and at least touch 40.

Bullish TLT. I know that supply matters especially when stock-bond correlation is positive but I just want to play positioning here. I’m pretty bullish for a jump back towards 93.

Watching NVDA. Not really bearish or bullish just a let’s see what happens kind of thing to watch. Been one of the market leaders this year and there’s not a lot of support below 405. Massive gap to fill too.

Really I’m watching all of the magnificent 7 stocks because they will be the leader. We have some bearish looking charts right now and it will be interesting to see if we can get a bounce this week or sell off keeps going.

I will leave everyone with this chart.

Does this chart look bullish or bearish to you? To me this looks very bullish! The bad news is this is SPX inverted….

I’m working on a few new things to implement into this newsletter so it can be more than just a weekly portfolio update although I still hope you enjoy these. Firstly I’m working on a macro report which should be out this week. I’m also working on an excel spreadsheet to share results of trades I’ve mentioned in passing on twitter or discord which you should definitely join me on both!

Thank you so much for reading! If you haven’t done so, please like and subscribe, it really helps with growth! If you’d like to stay more updated on trades or other ideas that might not warrant a full article then follow me on twitter here. Alternatively, I’m a part of a discord that is completely free. It’s just a collection of traders from all different backgrounds that talk about the markets, so come check it out here!

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